Vietnam's economy is expected to grow 5.7-5.9 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier and the trade deficit will widen to US$2.6 billion by end-March, the government said on Tuesday.
In a monthly report, the General Statistics Office forecast that industrial output would rise 13.5-13.8 percent from the same period last year, while retail sales and services would leap 24 percent.
The economy grew 6.9 percent in the final quarter of 2009 on an annual basis.
"First quarter GDP growth this year is expected to be higher than Q1 2009 because our country's economy is recovering and Q1 2009 was also a quarter with low growth due to the impact of the global economic crisis," it said in a monthly report.
The full-year target for gross domestic product growth is officially 6.5 percent, although Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung has forecast a 7 percent expansion.
The economy grew 5.32 percent last year, the lowest rate since 4.8 percent growth in 1999.
The statistics office said its forecasts were based on the economy's performance in the first two months of the year. Vietnam publishes GDP data on a quarterly basis.
Imports were expected to reach $16.8 billion in the first three months, outstripping exports which the statistics office forecast to be $14.2 billion.
Vietnam enjoyed a rare trade surplus in the first quarter of last year, in part due to re-exports of gold.
The government has said it was committed this year to the dual task of promoting economic growth and staving off high inflation.
Tuesday's report did not give an estimate for inflation. The government's target for annual inflation is 7 percent, but the annual rise in the consumer price index in both January and February exceeded that, and many economists are expecting double-digit inflation by mid-year.
In a report on Monday, economic research consultancy Capital Economics forecast inflation of 10-12 percent by the middle of the year, and expected the State Bank of Vietnam to raise policy rates soon.
The central bank raised the benchmark base rate to 8 percent from 7 percent at the start of December.
"We anticipate that the base rate will be hiked another 100 bps at the next SBV policy meeting which will be held around 25th March. Moreover, we continue to forecast that the base rate will peak at 12 percent at some point in 2010," it said.
Inflation and the trade deficit are cited as factors pressuring the dong over the past year or more.